Spatio-temporal modelling of referrals to outpatient respiratory clinics in the integrated care system of the Morecambe Bay area, England.

BACKGROUND: Promoting integrated care is a key goal of the NHS Long Term Plan to improve population respiratory health, yet there is limited data-driven evidence of its effectiveness. The Morecambe Bay Respiratory Network is an integrated care initiative operating in the North-West of England since 2017. A key target area has been reducing referrals to outpatient respiratory clinics by upskilling primary care teams. This study aims to explore space-time patterns in referrals from general practice in the Morecambe Bay area to evaluate the impact of the initiative. METHODS: Data on referrals to outpatient clinics and chronic respiratory disease patient counts between 2012-2020 were obtained from the Morecambe Bay Community Data Warehouse, a large store of routinely collected healthcare data. For analysis, the data is aggregated by year and small area geography. The methodology comprises of two parts. The first explores the issues that can arise when using routinely collected primary care data for space-time analysis and applies spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive modelling to adjust for data complexities. The second part models the rate of outpatient referral via a Poisson generalised linear mixed model that adjusts for changes in demographic factors and number of respiratory disease patients. RESULTS: The first year of the Morecambe Bay Respiratory Network was not associated with a significant difference in referral rate. However, the second and third years saw significant reductions in areas that had received intervention, with full intervention associated with a 31.8% (95% CI 17.0-43.9) and 40.5% (95% CI 27.5-50.9) decrease in referral rate in 2018 and 2019, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Routinely collected data can be used to robustly evaluate key outcome measures of integrated care. The results demonstrate that effective integrated care has real potential to ease the burden on respiratory outpatient services by reducing the need for an onward referral. This is of great relevance given the current pressure on outpatient services globally, particularly long waiting lists following the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for more innovative models of care.

Identifying longitudinal healthcare pathways and subsequent mortality for people living with dementia in England: an observational group-based trajectory analysis.

BACKGROUND: The number of people living with dementia (PLWD) continues to increase, particularly those with severe symptomatology. Severe symptoms and greater ill-health result in more acute care need. Early healthcare interventions can prove beneficial. Healthcare use has not been analysed as a holistic set of interlinked events. This study explores different healthcare pathways among PLWD, social or spatial inequalities in healthcare pathways and subsequent mortality risk. METHODS: Group-based trajectory models (GBTM) were applied to electronic healthcare records. We generated clusters of PLWD with similar five-year, post-diagnosis trajectories in rates of primary and secondary healthcare use. Potential social and spatial variations in healthcare use clusters were examined. Cox Proportional Hazards used to explore variation in subsequent mortality risk between healthcare use clusters. RESULTS: Four healthcare use clusters were identified in both early- (n = 3732) and late-onset (n = 6224) dementia populations. Healthcare use variations were noted; consistent or diminishing healthcare use was associated with lower subsequent mortality risk. Increasing healthcare use was associated with increased mortality risk. Descriptive analyses indicated social and spatial variation in healthcare use cluster membership. CONCLUSION: Healthcare pathways can help indicate changing need and variation in need, with differential patterns in initial healthcare use post-diagnosis, producing similar subsequent mortality risk. Care in dementia needs to be more accessible and appropriate, with care catered to specific and changing needs. Better continuity of care and greater awareness of dementia in primary can enhance prospects for PLWD. Research needs to further illuminate holistic care need for PLWD, including health and social care use, inequalities in care, health and outcomes.

This needs to be a journey that we're actually on together'-the introduction of integrated care systems for children and young people in England: a qualitative study of the views of local system stakeholders during winter 2021/22.

BACKGROUND: Integrated care has become a central feature of health system reform worldwide. In England, Integrated Care Systems (ICS) are intended to improve integration across public health, the National Health Service (NHS), education and social care. By April 2021, England had been divided into 42 geographical areas, each tasked with developing local ICS provision. However, it was not clear how ICSs would address the specific needs of children and young people (CYP). This study elicited the views of senior professional stakeholders in the first year of the ICS national roll out, to learn how integrated care for CYP was being implemented within the ICSs and future plans for service provision. METHODS: A qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with stakeholders, including healthcare professionals, NHS managers and local authority leaders (n = 25) selected from a diverse sample of ICSs (n = 7) across England, conducted during winter 2021/22. Reflexive thematic analysis involving a collaborative coding approach was used to analyse interview transcripts. RESULTS: Four themes were identified, indicating challenges and opportunities for ICSs in relation to the health of CYP: 1) Best start in life (a more holistic approach to health afforded by integrated care); 2) Local and national contexts (tensions between local and national settings and priorities); 3) Funding and planning (instituting innovative, long-term plans using limited existing CYP funding streams); 4) Organisational complexities (integrating the work of diverse organisations). CONCLUSIONS: The views of stakeholders, provided at the beginning of the journey towards developing local ICS CYP provision, revealed a common aspiration to change focus from provision of acute, largely adult-orientated services towards one with a broader, population health remit, including prevention and early intervention. This would be delivered by integration of a range of local services, including health, education, housing and social care, to set CYP on a life-long path towards improved health and wellbeing. Yet there was an awareness that change would take place over time within existing national policy and funding frameworks, and would require overcoming organisational barriers through further developing local collaborations and partnerships. As ICSs mature, the experiences of stakeholders should continue to be canvassed to identify practical lessons for successful CYP integrated care.

'The Addiction Was Making Things Harder for My Mental Health': A Qualitative Exploration of the Views of Adults and Adolescents Accessing a Substance Misuse Treatment Service.

The relationship between substance use and mental health is complex, and both constitute a global public health burden. In the UK, the estimated annual financial costs of alcohol-related harm and illicit drug use are GBP 21.5 billion and GBP 10.7 billion, respectively. This issue is magnified in the North East of England, where treatment access is low and a large proportion of individuals experience socioeconomic deprivation. The present study aimed to explore the experiences of adults and adolescents accessing a substance misuse treatment service in the North East, in order to inform policy makers, commissioners, and providers of substance misuse treatment and prevention. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with an opportunistic sample of n = 15 adult participants (aged 18 years and over) and n = 10 adolescent participants (aged between 13 and 17 years). Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, anonymised, and analysed thematically. Five key themes were identified: (1) initiation of substance use, (2) early life experiences, (3) the bi-directional relationship of mental health and substance use, (4) cessation of substance use, and (5) accessing treatment. Future preventative interventions should focus on providing support to individuals who have been exposed to adverse childhood experiences, with treatment provision for individuals experiencing co-occurring mental health and substance use issues taking a more holistic approach.

Impact of a social prescribing intervention in North East England on adults with type 2 diabetes: the SPRING_NE multimethod study.

Background: Link worker social prescribing enables health-care professionals to address patients' non-medical needs by linking patients into various services. Evidence for its effectiveness and how it is experienced by link workers and clients is lacking. Objectives: To evaluate the impact and costs of a link worker social prescribing intervention on health and health-care costs and utilisation and to observe link worker delivery and patient engagement. Data sources: Quality Outcomes Framework and Secondary Services Use data. Design: Multimethods comprising (1) quasi-experimental evaluation of effects of social prescribing on health and health-care use, (2) cost-effectiveness analysis, (3) ethnographic methods to explore intervention delivery and receipt, and (4) a supplementary interview study examining intervention impact during the first UK COVID-19 lockdown (April-July 2020). Study population and setting: Community-dwelling adults aged 40-74 years with type 2 diabetes and link workers in a socioeconomically deprived locality of North East England, UK. Intervention: Link worker social prescribing to improve health and well-being-related outcomes among people with long-term conditions. Participants: (1) Health outcomes study, approximately n = 8400 patients; EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version (EQ-5D-5L), study, n = 694 (baseline) and n = 474 (follow-up); (2) ethnography, n = 20 link workers and n = 19 clients; and COVID-19 interviews, n = 14 staff and n = 44 clients. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measures were glycated haemoglobin level (HbA1c; primary outcome), body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol level, smoking status, health-care costs and utilisation, and EQ-5D-5L score. Results: Intention-to-treat analysis of approximately 8400 patients in 13 intervention and 11 control general practices demonstrated a statistically significant, although not clinically significant, difference in HbA1c level (-1.11 mmol/mol) and a non-statistically significant 1.5-percentage-point reduction in the probability of having high blood pressure, but no statistically significant effects on other outcomes. Health-care cost estimates ranged from £18.22 (individuals with one extra comorbidity) to -£50.35 (individuals with no extra comorbidity). A statistically non-significant shift from unplanned (non-elective and accident and emergency admissions) to planned care (elective and outpatient care) was observed. Subgroup analysis showed more benefit for individuals living in more deprived areas, for the ethnically white and those with fewer comorbidities. The mean cost of the intervention itself was £1345 per participant; the incremental mean health gain was 0.004 quality-adjusted life-years (95% confidence interval -0.022 to 0.029 quality-adjusted life-years); and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £327,250 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Ethnographic data showed that successfully embedded, holistic social prescribing providing supported linking to navigate social determinants of health was challenging to deliver, but could offer opportunities for improving health and well-being. However, the intervention was heterogeneous and was shaped in unanticipated ways by the delivery context. Pressures to generate referrals and meet targets detracted from face-to-face contact and capacity to address setbacks among those with complex health and social problems. Limitations: The limitations of the study include (1) a reduced sample size because of non-participation of seven general practices; (2) incompleteness and unreliability of some of the Quality and Outcomes Framework data; (3) unavailability of accurate data on intervention intensity and patient comorbidity; (4) reliance on an exploratory analysis with significant sensitivity analysis; and (5) limited perspectives from voluntary, community and social enterprise. Conclusions: This social prescribing model resulted in a small improvement in glycaemic control. Outcome effects varied across different groups and the experience of social prescribing differed depending on client circumstances. Future work: To examine how the NHS Primary Care Network social prescribing is being operationalised; its impact on health outcomes, service use and costs; and its tailoring to different contexts. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN13880272. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme, Community Groups and Health Promotion (grant no. 16/122/33) and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 11, No. 2. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Social prescribing happens when health-care staff refer patients to a link worker. Link workers support and help patients to access community services to improve their health and well-being. Social prescribing is popular within the NHS, but there is little evidence that it works. We looked at a social prescribing model being delivered in a disadvantaged area in north-east England.

Recent GP consultation before death by suicide in middle-aged males: a national consecutive case series study.

BACKGROUND: Reducing suicide risk in middle-aged males (40-54 years) is a national priority. People have often presented to their GP within 3 months before suicide thus highlighting an opportunity for early intervention. AIM: To describe the sociodemographic characteristics and identify antecedents in middle-aged males who recently consulted a GP before dying by suicide. DESIGN AND SETTING: This study was a descriptive examination of suicide in a national consecutive sample of middle-aged males in 2017 in England, Scotland, and Wales. METHOD: General population mortality data were obtained from the Office for National Statistics and National Records of Scotland. Information was collected about antecedents considered relevant to suicide from data sources. Logistic regression examined associations with final recent GP consultation. Males with lived experience were consulted during the study. RESULTS: In 2017, a quarter (n = 1516) of all suicide deaths were in middle-aged males. Data were attained on 242 males: 43% had their last GP consultation within 3 months of suicide; and a third of these males were unemployed and nearly half were living alone. Males who saw a GP recently before suicide were more likely to have had recent self-harm and work-related problems than males who had not. Having a current major physical illness, recent self-harm, presenting with a mental health problem, and recent work-related issues were associated with having a last GP consultation close to suicide. CONCLUSION: Clinical factors were identified that GPs should be alert to when assessing middle-aged males. Personalised holistic management may have a role in preventing suicide in these individuals.

Mortality risk in adults with intellectual disabilities and epilepsy: an England and Wales case-control study.

BACKGROUND: People with epilepsy (PWE) and people with intellectual disabilities (ID) both live shorter lives than the general population and both conditions increase the risk of death further. We aimed to measure associations between certain risk factors for death in PWE and ID. METHODS: A retrospective case-control study was conducted in ten regions in England and Wales. Data were collected on PWE registered with secondary care ID and neurology services between 2017 and 2021. Prevalence rates of neurodevelopmental, psychiatric and medical diagnoses, seizure frequency, psychotropic and antiseizure medications (ASM) prescribed, and health activity (epilepsy reviews/risk assessments/care plans/compliance etc.) recorded were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: 190 PWE and ID who died were compared with 910 living controls. People who died were less likely to have had an epilepsy risk assessment but had a greater prevalence of genetic conditions, older age, poor physical health, generalized tonic-clonic seizures, polypharmacy (not ASMs) and antipsychotic use. The multivariable logistic regression for risk of epilepsy-related death identified that age over 50, medical condition prevalence, antipsychotic medication use and the lack of an epilepsy review in the last 12 months as associated with increased risk of death. Reviews by psychiatrists in ID services was associated with a 72% reduction in the odds of death compared neurology services. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy and use of antipsychotics may be associated with death but not ASMs. Greater and closer monitoring by creating capable health communities may reduce the risk of death. ID services maybe more likely to provide this holistic approach.

Women's preconception health in England: a report card based on cross-sectional analysis of national maternity services data from 2018/2019.

OBJECTIVE: To present the first national-level report card on the state of women's preconception health in England. DESIGN: Cross-sectional population-based study. SETTING: Maternity services, England. POPULATION: All pregnant women in England with a first antenatal (booking) appointment recorded in the national Maternity Services Dataset (MSDS) from April 2018 to March 2019 (n = 652 880). METHODS: We analysed the prevalence of 32 preconception indicator measures in the overall population and across socio-demographic subgroups. Ten of these indicators were prioritised for ongoing surveillance based on modifiability, prevalence, data quality and ranking by multidisciplinary UK experts. RESULTS: The three most prevalent indicators were the proportion of the 22.9% of women who smoked 1 year before pregnancy who did not quit smoking before pregnancy (85.0%), those who had not taken folic acid supplementation before pregnancy (72.7%) and previous pregnancy loss (38.9%). Inequalities were observed by age, ethnicity and area-based deprivation level. The ten indicators prioritised were not taking folic acid supplementation before pregnancy, obesity, complex social factors, living in the most deprived areas, smoking around the time of conception, overweight, pre-existing mental health condition, pre-existing physical health condition, previous pregnancy loss and previous obstetric complication. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest important opportunities to improve the state of preconception health and reduce socio-demographic inequalities for women in England. In addition to MSDS data, other national data sources that record further and possibly better quality indicators could be explored and linked to build a comprehensive surveillance infrastructure.

Variations in the Type of Adjuvant Chemotherapy Among Stage III Colon Cancer Patients in England.

PURPOSE: Treatment with any adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer has been shown to differ between population groups. Few studies, however, explore variations in the type of adjuvant chemotherapy received, none of which are from the UK. The aim of this study is to explore variation in the type of chemotherapy received by stage III colon cancer patients in England. METHODS: Data from the national cancer registry was linked to the Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy database, which provides detailed information on treatment of malignant diseases from all NHS England chemotherapy providers. Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared between those who received monotherapy (fluoropyrimidine) or combination chemotherapy (fluoropyrimidine and oxaliplatin) among stage III colon cancer patients between 2012 and 2017. RESULTS: Of 8750 patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy, 22.3% (n = 2359) received monotherapy and 60.4% (n = 6391) received combination therapy. The odds of receiving combination therapy decreased with age. Those from the most deprived group had half the odds (OR: 0.5, CI: 0.42, 0.59, p < 0.001) of receiving combination therapy compared to the least deprived group. Women were 14% less likely to get combined therapy (OR: 0.86, CI: 0.77, 0.95, p = 0.005). Those with the largest tumour size (T4) and those with more than three lymph nodes involved (N2) had 30% (OR: 1.30; CI: 1.07, 1.59; p = 0.008) and 50% (OR: 1.50; 1.34, 1.69; p < 0.001) higher odds of receiving combination therapy compared to T1 or T2 and N1, respectively. CONCLUSION: There is variation in the type of chemotherapy received for stage III colon cancer patients by sociodemographic factors, despite clear clinical guidelines.

Access to hip and knee arthroplasty in England: commissioners' policies for body mass index and smoking status and implications for integrated care systems.

BACKGROUND: Commissioning policies are in place in England that alter access to hip and knee arthroplasty based on patients' body mass index and smoking status. Our objectives were to ascertain the prevalence, trend and nature of these policies, and consider the implications for new integrated care systems (ICSs). METHODS: Policy data were obtained from an internet search for all current and historic clinical commissioning group (CCG) hip and knee arthroplasty policies and use of Freedom of Information (FOI) requests to each CCG. Descriptive analyses of policy type, explicit threshold criteria and geography are reported. Estimates were made of the uptake of policies by ICSs based on the modal policy type of their constituent CCGs. RESULTS: There were 106 current and 143 historic CCGs in England at the time of the search in June 2021. Policy information was available online for 56.2% (140/249) CCGs. With the addition of information from FOIs, complete policy information was available for 94.4% (235/249) of CCGs. Prevalence and severity of policies have increased over time. For current CCGs, 67.9% (72/106) had a policy for body mass index (BMI) and 75.5% (80/106) had a policy for smoking status for hip or knee arthroplasty. Where BMI policies were in place, 61.1% (44/72) introduced extra waiting time before surgery or restricted access to surgery based on BMI thresholds (modal threshold: BMI of 40 kg/m2, range 30-45). In contrast, where smoking status policies were in place, most offered patients advice or optional smoking cessation support and only 15% (12/80) introduced extra waiting time or mandatory cessation before surgery. It is estimated that 40% of ICSs may adopt a BMI policy restrictive to access to arthroplasty. CONCLUSIONS: Access policies to arthroplasty based on BMI and smoking status are widespread in England, have increased in prevalence since 2013, and persist within new ICSs. The high variation in policy stringency on BMI between regions is likely to cause inequality in access to arthroplasty and to specialist support for affected patients. Further work should determine the impact of different types of policy on access to surgery and health inequalities.

An integrated care model for mental health in diabetes: Recommendations for local implementation by the Diabetes and Mental Health Expert Working Group in England.

CONTEXT: In 2019, NHS England and Diabetes UK convened an Expert Working Group (EWG) in order to develop a Model and recommendations to guide commissioning and provision of mental health care in diabetes pathways and diabetes care in mental health pathways. The recommendations are based on a combination of evidence, national guidance, case studies and expert opinion from across the UK and form other long term conditions. THE CASE FOR INTEGRATION: There is good the evidence around the high prevalence of co-morbidity between diabetes and mental illness of all severities and, the poorer diabetes and mental health outcomes for patients when this co-morbidity exists. Detecting and managing the mental health co-morbidity improves these outcomes, but the evidence suggests that detection of mental illness is poor in the context of diabetes care in community and acute care settings and that when it is detected, the access to appropriate mental health resource is variable and generally inadequate. THE MODEL OF INTEGRATED CARE FOR DIABETES: The EWG developed a one-page Model with five core principles and five operational work-streams to support the delivery of integration, with examples of local case studies for local implementation. The five core principals are: Care for all-describing how care for all PWD needs to explore what matters to them and that emotional wellbeing is supported at diagnosis and beyond; Support and information-describing how HCPs should appropriately signpost to mental health support and the need for structured education programmes to include mental healthcare information; Needs identified-describing how PWD should have their mental health needs identified and acted on; Integrated care-describing how people with mental illness and diabetes should have their diabetes considered within their mental health care; Specialist care-describing how PWD should be able to access specialist diabetes mental health professionals. The five cross cutting work-streams for operationalising the principles are: Implementing training and upskilling of HCPs; Embedding mental health screening and assessment into diabetes pathways; Ensuring access to clear, integrated local pathways; Ensuring addressing health inequalities is incorporated at every stage of service development; Improving access to specialist mental health services through commissioning. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The Model can be implemented in part or completely, at an individual level, all the way up to system level. It can be adapted across the life span and the UK, and having learnt from other long term conditions, there is a lot of transferability across all long term conditions There is an opportunity for ICBs to consider economies of scale across multiple long term conditions for which there will be a significant overlap of patients within the local population. Any local implementation should be in co-production with experts by experience and third sector providers.

The association between vitamin D status and COVID-19 in England: A cohort study using UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies indicate that vitamin D supplementation may decrease respiratory tract infections, but the association between vitamin D and COVID-19 is still unclear. OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between vitamin D status and infections, hospitalisation, and mortality due to COVID-19. METHODS: We used UK Biobank, a nationwide cohort of 500,000 individuals aged between 40 and 69 years at recruitment between 2006 and 2010. We included people with at least one serum vitamin D test, living in England with linked primary care and inpatient records. The primary exposure was serum vitamin D status measured at recruitment, defined as deficiency at <25 nmol/L, insufficiency at 25-49 nmol/L and sufficiency at ≥ 50 nmol/L. Secondary exposures were self-reported or prescribed vitamin D supplements. The primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed or clinically diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections. The secondary outcomes included hospitalisation and mortality due to COVID-19. We used multivariable Cox regression models stratified by summertime months and non-summertime months, adjusting for demographic factors and underlying comorbidities. RESULTS: We included 307,512 participants (54.9% female, 55.9% over 70 years old) in our analysis. During summertime months, weak evidence existed that the vitamin D deficiency group had a lower hazard of being diagnosed with COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.77-0.95). During non-summertime, the vitamin D deficiency group had a higher hazard of COVID-19 compared with the vitamin D sufficient group (HR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01-1.30). No evidence was found that vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency was associated with either hospitalisation or mortality due to COVID-19 in any time strata. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence of an association between historical vitamin D status and hospitalisation or mortality due to COVID-19, along with inconsistent results for any association between vitamin D and diagnosis of COVID-19. However, studies using more recent vitamin D measurements and systematic COVID-19 testing are needed.

Antibiotic resistance among invasive Neisseria meningitidis isolates in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (2010/11 to 2018/19).

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), caused by Neisseria meningitidis, can have a fatality rate as high as 10%, even with appropriate treatment. In the UK, penicillin is administered to patients in primary care whilst third generation cephalosporins, cefotaxime and ceftriaxone, are administered in secondary care. The first-choice antibiotic for chemoprophylaxis of close contacts is ciprofloxacin, followed by rifampicin. Immunocompromised individuals are often recommended antibiotic chemoprophylaxis and vaccination due to a greater risk of IMD. Resistance to antibiotics among meningococci is relatively rare, however reduced susceptibility and resistance to penicillin are increasing globally. Resistance to third generation cephalosporins is seldom reported, however reduced susceptibility to both cefotaxime and ceftriaxone has been observed. Rifampicin resistance has been reported among meningococci, mainly following prophylaxis, and ciprofloxacin resistance, whilst uncommon, has also been reported across the globe. The Public Health England Meningococcal Reference Unit receives and characterises the majority of isolates from IMD cases in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This study assessed the distribution of antibiotic resistance to penicillin, rifampicin, ciprofloxacin and cefotaxime among IMD isolates received at the MRU from 2010/11 to 2018/19 (n = 4,122). Out of the 4,122 IMD isolates, 113 were penicillin-resistant, five were ciprofloxacin-resistant, two were rifampicin-resistant, and one was cefotaxime-resistant. Penicillin resistance was due to altered penA alleles whilst rifampicin and ciprofloxacin resistance was due to altered rpoB and gyrA alleles, respectively. Cefotaxime resistance was observed in one isolate which had an altered penA allele containing additional mutations to those harboured by the penicillin-resistant isolates. This study identified several isolates with resistance to antibiotics used for current treatment and prophylaxis of IMD and highlights the need for continued surveillance of resistance among meningococci to ensure continued effective use.

Trends in termination of pregnancy for neural tube defects in England and Wales from 2007 to 2017: Observational prospective study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Neural tube defects (NTDs) affect approximately 300,000 pregnancies worldwide each year. Many of these pregnancies are lost to miscarriage or termination of pregnancy. Here, we have analysed the trends of termination of pregnancy for NTDs from the national data for England and Wales. METHODS: Data for all terminations for residents in England and Wales for the period of 2007-2017 were obtained through Health and Social Act 4 (HSA4) submitted to the Department of Health. Using the ICD-10 codes, terminations for NTDs were selected for analysis. The statistical test Chi-squared was performed using SPSS-v25, where appropriate. RESULTS: In the 11-year period, there were 28,866 terminations under Ground E; of which 4425 (15.33%) had a diagnosis of NTD. The number of NTD cases increased over the time period from 308 in 2007 to 517 in 2017 (67.9%). Significant results were also seen when analysing the relationship between ethnicity, gestation and terminations where an NTD was diagnosed. CONCLUSION: With the availability of routine prenatal ultrasound, the termination for NTDs is on the rise in England and Wales, in spite of the health advice of periconceptional folic acid. This study demonstrates the need for implementation of further programmes to increase public health awareness of folic supplementation and government initiation of fortification to reduce NTDs.

Interpretation of Timetrends (1996-2017) of the Incidence of Selected Cancers in England in Relation to Mobile Phone Use as a Possible Risk Factor.

Radiofrequency (RF) radiation from mobile phones has been classified as possibly carcinogenic to humans (2b) by IARC. However, to date, the discussion on whether mobile phone use is a cancer risk factor has not been solved. In this context of continuing uncertainty, it is important to continue to monitor cancer incidence trends. Annual incidence rates and directly age-standardized rates of selected cancers by sex and 5-year age groups for 1996 to 2017 for England were obtained from the UK Office for National Statistics. Interpretation in light of mobile phone use as a contributing risk factor was conducted for cancers of the brain, parotid gland, thyroid, and colorectal cancer, which have all been hypothesized to be associated with RF exposure. Brain and parotid gland cancers were updated by an additional 10 years following a previous publication, and continue to provide little evidence of an association with mobile phone use. Although mobile phone use as a potential risk factor contributing to increased incidence of colorectal or thyroid cancer could not be excluded based on these ecological data, it is implausible that it is an important risk factor for either. In the absence of clarity from epidemiological studies, it remains important to continue to monitor trends. However, for the time being, and in agreement with data from other countries, there is little evidence of an association between mobile phone use and brain or parotid gland cancer, while the hypotheses of associations with thyroid or colorectal cancer are similarly weak. © 2021 Bioelectromagnetics Society.

Using epidemiological evidence to forecast population need for early treatment programmes in mental health: a generalisable Bayesian prediction methodology applied to and validated for first-episode psychosis in England.

Background: Mental health policy makers require evidence-based information to optimise effective care provision based on local need, but tools are unavailable. Aims: To develop and validate a population-level prediction model for need for early intervention in psychosis (EIP) care for first-episode psychosis (FEP) in England up to 2025, based on epidemiological evidence and demographic projections. Method: We used Bayesian Poisson regression to model small-area-level variation in FEP incidence for people aged 16-64 years. We compared six candidate models, validated against observed National Health Service FEP data in 2017. Our best-fitting model predicted annual incidence case-loads for EIP services in England up to 2025, for probable FEP, treatment in EIP services, initial assessment by EIP services and referral to EIP services for 'suspected psychosis'. Forecasts were stratified by gender, age and ethnicity, at national and Clinical Commissioning Group levels. Results: A model with age, gender, ethnicity, small-area-level deprivation, social fragmentation and regional cannabis use provided best fit to observed new FEP cases at national and Clinical Commissioning Group levels in 2017 (predicted 8112, 95% CI 7623-8597; observed 8038, difference of 74 [0.92%]). By 2025, the model forecasted 11 067 new treated cases per annum (95% CI 10383-11740). For every 10 new treated cases, 21 and 23 people would be assessed by and referred to EIP services for suspected psychosis, respectively. Conclusions: Our evidence-based methodology provides an accurate, validated tool to inform clinical provision of EIP services about future population need for care, based on local variation of major social determinants of psychosis.

Developing a model to predict individualised treatment for gonorrhoea: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a tool predicting individualised treatment for gonorrhoea, enabling treatment with previously recommended antibiotics, to reduce use of last-line treatment ceftriaxone. DESIGN: A modelling study. SETTING: England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals accessing sentinel health services. INTERVENTION: Developing an Excel model which uses participants' demographic, behavioural and clinical characteristics to predict susceptibility to legacy antibiotics. Model parameters were calculated using data for 2015-2017 from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated number of doses of ceftriaxone saved, and number of people delayed effective treatment, by model use in clinical practice. Model outputs are the predicted risk of resistance to ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, penicillin and cefixime, in groups of individuals with different combinations of characteristics (gender, sexual orientation, number of recent sexual partners, age, ethnicity), and a treatment recommendation. RESULTS: Between 2015 and 2017, 8013 isolates were collected: 64% from men who have sex with men, 18% from heterosexual men and 18% from women. Across participant subgroups, stratified by all predictors, resistance prevalence was high for ciprofloxacin (range: 11%-51%) and penicillin (range: 6%-33%). Resistance prevalence for azithromycin and cefixime ranged from 0% to 13% and for ceftriaxone it was 0%. Simulating model use, 88% of individuals could be given cefixime and 10% azithromycin, saving 97% of ceftriaxone doses, with 1% of individuals delayed effective treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Using demographic and behavioural characteristics, we could not reliably identify a participant subset in which ciprofloxacin or penicillin would be effective. Cefixime resistance was almost universally low; however, substituting ceftriaxone for near-uniform treatment with cefixime risks re-emergence of resistance to cefixime and ceftriaxone. Several subgroups had low azithromycin resistance, but widespread azithromycin monotherapy risks resistance at population level. However, this dataset had limitations; further exploration of individual characteristics to predict resistance to a wider range of legacy antibiotics may still be appropriate.

The epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 app.

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen the emergence of digital contact tracing to help to prevent the spread of the disease. A mobile phone app records proximity events between app users, and when a user tests positive for COVID-19, their recent contacts can be notified instantly. Theoretical evidence has supported this new public health intervention1-6, but its epidemiological impact has remained uncertain7. Here we investigate the impact of the National Health Service (NHS) COVID-19 app for England and Wales, from its launch on 24 September 2020 to the end of December 2020. It was used regularly by approximately 16.5 million users (28% of the total population), and sent approximately 1.7 million exposure notifications: 4.2 per index case consenting to contact tracing. We estimated that the fraction of individuals notified by the app who subsequently showed symptoms and tested positive (the secondary attack rate (SAR)) was 6%, similar to the SAR for manually traced close contacts. We estimated the number of cases averted by the app using two complementary approaches: modelling based on the notifications and SAR gave an estimate of 284,000 (central 95% range of sensitivity analyses 108,000-450,000), and statistical comparison of matched neighbouring local authorities gave an estimate of 594,000 (95% confidence interval 317,000-914,000). Approximately one case was averted for each case consenting to notification of their contacts. We estimated that for every percentage point increase in app uptake, the number of cases could be reduced by 0.8% (using modelling) or 2.3% (using statistical analysis). These findings support the continued development and deployment of such apps in populations that are awaiting full protection from vaccines.

Climatic factors are associated with asthma prevalence: An ecological study using English quality outcomes framework general practitioner practice data.

Asthma is a complex disease with multiple environmental factors proposed to contribute to aetiology. Geographical analyses can shed light on the determinants of asthma. Ultraviolet radiation has been associated with asthma prevalence in past ecological studies. We have increased the detail of examining the association between asthma and ultraviolet radiation with addition of the variables of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. An ecological study was designed to investigate meteorological factors associated with asthma prevalence in England. Data from the 2005 quality outcomes framework were used to determine the prevalence of asthma in primary care in England. This information was supplemented with indicators of obesity and smoking of the General Practitioner practice and population (by age and sex), deprivation and ethnicity at lower super output level from the 2001 and 2011 census. Annual mean meteorological data was attained from the Met Office and Joint Research Centre. We used a multiple linear regression to examine individual and multiple climatic factors through a principal components analysis. We tested for an association with asthma prevalence, after taking into account the spatial autocorrelation of the data. Asthma prevalence from general practice surgeries in England was 5.88% (95% CI 5.83 to 5.92). In the highest ultraviolet radiation weighted by the pre-vitamin D action spectrum (UVvitd) quartile (2.12 to 2.50 kJ/m2/day), asthma had a 5% reduction in prevalence; compared to the lowest quartile here (0.95 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.98)). Similar reductions were found in the higher temperature 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 96). The opposite was found with relative humidity 1.09 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.12). A combination of high temperature and UVvitd highlighted postcode districts in the South East of England with a climate beneficial to low asthma prevalence. The South West of England represented a climate which had both beneficial and detrimental associations with asthma development. Climate is associated with asthma prevalence in England. Understanding the contribution of multiple climatic factors and the relationship with the indoor environment could help to explain the population distribution of asthma.

Preparing for PrEP; the cost of delaying universal access in England.

OBJECTIVES: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is not commissioned within National Health Service (NHS) England. Individuals can access it privately online or by enrolment into a clinical trial. We established a list of individuals not enrolled in trials, awaiting PrEP. In response to the observation that patients awaiting PrEP trials were being referred with newly diagnosed HIV, we aimed to measure attendance, incident HIV, STI acquisition and missed opportunities for prevention. METHODS: The search was conducted for patients on the list from November 2017 to November 2019. We examined the electronic clinical records of those on the list and extracted demographic information, STI and HIV diagnoses. In addition, for those diagnosed with HIV, we reviewed risk factors including chemsex and prior postexposure prophylaxis. RESULTS: There were 1073 patients on list, and 520 (48.6%) were still awaiting recruitment in a PrEP trial. Eight (0.75%) had an enrolment appointment booked while 200 (18.64%) had been contacted and deemed ineligible according to PrEP trial criteria. 45 (32.15%) had not responded to contact. We identified 15 new HIV infections in patients awaiting PrEP. Of these, 9/15 (60.00%) did not meet eligibility criteria at point of contact, though had been eligible at first referral. CONCLUSION: It is unacceptable that 15 patients acquired HIV while waiting. The individual lifetime cost of treating HIV is estimated at £360 800(1). This equals £5 412 000 for these 15 infections notwithstanding the psychological and physical burden. We advocate the immediate role out of universal PrEP for those who need it on the NHS. While this decision is delayed, harm is coming to those waiting. Wider provision of PrEP may encourage increased attendance, but must consider additional resources to accommodate added visits. We are relieved that at the point of final submission (21 March 2020) NHS England have recently announced funding of PrEP for eligible patients from, further details are pending.